Transport and energy trends

The deadly combination of transport-related urban air pollution and traffic injuries kills some 2.6 million people every year, mostly in low- and middle-income countries; and the knock-on effects of our modern urban lifestyles produce a wide range of ailments and maladies. According to Dr Carlos Dora from the World Health Organization (WHO), we could remediate many of these ills – and do our embattled climate a big favour – by going back to the basics and reclaiming the benefits of the old-fashioned village lifestyle.

Speaking at a side event at the 17th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 17) on “Health and Development in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation” – convened by the WHO in collaboration with the South African, United Kingdom and Northern Ireland governments – Dr Dora told an appreciative audience that safe cycling and walking are vital components of the transport systems of the future: good for health, and good for the climate as well.

A new WHO report, officially released at the 6 December event, places great emphasis on the positive environmental and health benefits that can arise from a combination of collective rapid transit and dedicated walking or cycling systems.

A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change study of several Latin American cities demonstrated that improved bus rapid transit (BRT) systems, combined with pedestrian upgrades and cycleways, had a significant greenhouse gas mitigation potential, at relatively low cost.

Alongside the cost-effective reduction of carbon emissions, such systems have the added benefits of promoting healthy physical activity, reducing the risks of health-harming air pollution and noise stress, and lowering traffic injury rates among transit users, pedestrians and cyclists.

These benefits may be further enhanced by a “proximity planning” approach to urban design, which intermingles commercial and residential areas so that commuters and students can walk or cycle to work, school or college; users can easily access recreational and service facilities; and children, the elderly and the disabled can move around safely and easily. In this way, greater health equity is achieved while carbon emissions are simultaneously reduced.

“It’s a win-win situation,” said Dr Dora – and his co-panellist Jeremy Cronin, who is not only our deputy minister of Transport, but also a good communist, an acclaimed poet and a lover of the outdoor life, could not have agreed more. The latter reminded the audience that 15 000 people are killed on South African roads every year, of whom 40% are pedestrians.

Walkers of the world, unite!

Don’t ride alone

Electric cars are a big talking point in transport circles these days, but a November 2011 position paper from the International Association of Public Transport cautions against “individual electromobility” as a carbon reduction strategy, arguing that “future urban mobility cannot be sustainable if it relies solely on electric cars”. Rather, energy-efficient collective transport will be the answer to regulating consumption and emission in the cities of the future.

As the report points out: “a green traffic jam is still a traffic jam”. Individual electromobility does not solve congestion. It does not improve urban traffic efficiency, either. Other solutions are needed, and these will rely as much on changes in urban design and human collective behaviour as the development of new fuel technologies.

The cities of the future are likely to see greater urban density along major transport corridors, with car-sharing, bike-sharing and car pooling, alongside conventional public transport, as the norm.

Simultaneously, urban design will strive to ensure residents can enjoy “convenient and reliable lifestyle services” within walking distance from home, work and recreational areas.

In Europe, up to 50% of public transport (commuter railways, metro, light rail, trams and trolleybuses) is already powered by electricity, conveying some 90 million passengers daily – and these figures will increase dramatically in coming decades.

The report argues that public transport, which consumes roughly half as much energy per passenger-kilometre as private vehicles, is likely to maintain its competitive edge in terms of energy consumption.

As the report points out, electricity is not green by nature, and the primary energy source – whether fossil fuel combustion, nuclear plant or renewables – has to be taken into consideration in assessing the carbon footprints of the various transport modes. If the primary source is counted in, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric cars are not significantly different from today’s diesel or gasoline cars.

A much more significant variable is vehicle space occupancy. More passengers per vehicle automatically generates improvements in carbon performance.

The report calls for a “decarbonisation of transport”, in terms of which the use of electrified public transport – combined with walking, cycling and private vehicle sharing – is seen as the best route to a low-carbon future.

A “modal shift” to rail

Railroads are among the most romantic modes of transport, as the words of many a country ballad attest. But they are being increasingly touted as the most carbon-efficient way to get from point A to B.

The International Union of Railways (UIC) hosted a side event at COP 17, entitled: “Are roads the only option? Public transport in emerging economies”, which highlighted emerging economies such as Turkey, Morocco, Vietnam and Ethiopia, where rail projects are seen as a low-carbon transport solution for the future.

Transport experts at the event argued for a combination of factors in reducing carbon dioxide emissions: using more energy-efficient technologies; reducing the need to travel; and recognising that which scientists are calling “a modal shift” in our approach to transport.

Modal shifts occur when one mode of doing something develops a comparative advantage over, and ultimately replaces, others in the same sector. Moving from inertia through a shift phase to a new equilibrium, modal shifts represent seismic movements from one dominant paradigm to another. We are currently moving beyond the situation of inertia that has held the transport sector in its grip for decades as the unsustainability of carbon dependence becomes increasingly apparent.

According to Alexander Veitch, head of UIC’s sustainable development unit: “Transport is already the biggest user of fossil fuels worldwide, and investment in energy-efficient rail systems can help countries to provide affordable public transport while reducing their carbon emissions.”

According to the International Energy Agency, transportation accounts for more than half of the world’s liquid fuel consumption; and under a business-as-usual scenario, this could increase to 60% by 2035. Within this alarming picture, rail currently accounts for only 2% of emissions.

A recent European Commission Transport White Paper shows that existing infrastructure alone could accommodate a 30% to 40% growth in train kilometres by 2020, with increases in rail freight traffic of 83% and passenger transport by 23%.

The report suggests that, by 2050, rail could be the dominant mode for long-distance transport in Europe, with an accompanying greenhouse gas reduction of 238 Mtonne of CO2 equivalent per annum, or 21% of total transport emissions. While this would require heavy investment in rail infrastructure – between €1 300bn (R16 020bn) and €2 000bn (R24 634bn) – full internalisation of external and infrastructure costs could contribute significantly to the funding of such a project.

Compiled by Andy Mason

Cartoon by ND Mazin