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Holding our breathThe only thing that’s certain at the moment is that there’s much uncertainty about. Doubt overshadows practically every issue, from the disturbingly general – is climate change really a threat or were the green books cooked? – to the critically particular: will Chancellor House actually make an unequivocal decision to sell its stake in Hitachi, or not?
Then there’s the uncertainty surrounding the hopes and fears attached to key political figures occupying disproportionate amounts of space in the media these days. Little wonder there’s a sense of business leaders hedging their bets and holding their collective breath.
As far as the transport sector is concerned, two key political figures who have been saying very interesting things are Transport Minister Sibusiso Ndebele and Deputy Transport Minister Jeremy Cronin.
In Ndebele’s case, the saying came after the seeing: by all accounts, the minister came back highly impressed from the ride on a high-speed train to which he was treated in China.
Citing technology and skills as key drivers in the Chinese rail success story, the minister went on to say: “Local manufacturing capacities are also vital, as outlined in South Africa’s Industrial Strategy which places emphasis on local manufacturing.
“Therefore, in our determination to modernise our railway system, we must ensure that we build capacity, not only for South Africa but for the SADC (Southern African Development Community) region as a whole,” he said.
Now it has been announced that a high-speed Johannesburg-Durban rail link is being investigated. Will Chinese expertise play a part?
Deputy Minister Cronin also has been vocal in this regard lately, deploring the overreliance on trucks and poor road quality endemic to South African transport. As he told Parliament: “Some 80% of our road network is now older than the 20-year design life for which it was originally built.
“Even more sobering is the fact that in making its assessment of the entire network, the South African National Roads Agency was able to rely on data for only 64% of roads in our nine metros.
“When it came to other municipalities [some 340 000 km], there was data for only 4% of these roads.” Fixing the roads will cost as estimated R75 million; Minister Ndebele therefore has mooted a Road Infrastructure Maintenance Fund. A high-speed rail link would require financing as well. Given that transport is as crucial to economic development as energy, one has to ask: is another big loan from an international lending institution in the offing?
Given these developments, I predict that this year’s Africa Rail conference will be the most interesting yet, not least for road transport leaders. Dramatic change in the southern African rail landscape will impact road transport considerably – for the better, I would say.
Road Ahead will be back in July with reports and insight on these and other matters.
Greg Penfold
